The Out Lap: Mexico City Grand Prix

We are back for another year in Mexico City and unfortunately I fear that we are in store for another 2022 repeat.

Allow me to refresh your memory. Mexico 2022 was debatably the most boring race of the season, but Max took P1 (shocker) to break the single-season win record and the most entertaining part of the race itself was Daniel Ricciardo in a McLaren. That alone should speak volumes. Fernando Alonso had one of many DNFs with Alpine here, and although Checo got a podium at his home GP, the home fans still managed to anger the entire community by booing Lewis Hamilton the second he appeared on screen. Allegedly the crowd was whistling at Sergio Perez's father, but a year later it's hard to tell.

Anyways, let's move on to what we can expect this year.

We have a slew of teams hosting F2 drivers in FP1, including Theo Pourchaire for Alfa Romeo, Isack Hadjar for AlphaTauri, Ollie Bearman for Haas, Jack Doohan for Alpine, and Frederik Vesti for Mercedes. 

I was familiar with all but Hadjar as all but him are present in the top six in the chase for the F2 Drivers' Championship, but Hadjar is sat down in 14th. It's his rookie season, so I'll give him credit where it's due, but the French-Algerian driver is nowhere near ready for an F1 seat at this time.

As for the strengths and weaknesses of each car, it's obvious that Red Bull are the likely favorites heading into this weekend. But with lots of low-speed corners and no long straights, it can be forecast that the Ferraris could struggle notably here. It must be noted though that Sainz was able to capture a win in Singapore, a track with lots of low-speed corners. McLaren are on for likely a P3-4-ish qualifying assuming Hamilton, Leclerc and Verstappen take the top three, but it'll likely be a door wide open for any position behind first. I could see Aston Martin bouncing back to some degree this weekend as they've had time to tune the setup for their newly-installed upgrades, but don't expect a grand comeback or win number 33 for Fernando.

In the race I expect Max to pull away somewhat quickly, but who will end up in the top three? It'll be interesting to see if Mercedes can maintain the pace they had from the US GP, but we must take that with a grain of salt because a lower ride height does indeed translate to better performance despite excessive wear on the plank. Now before everyone jumps on me saying that other cars that weren't inspected would have also failed the inspection, Max Verstappen and Lando Norris were also inspected and passed. These are both the #1 drivers for their respective teams, as are Hamilton and Leclerc (debatably), so if McLaren or Red Bull would have lowered the ride height for one of their cars, it would have been these two. Now yes, other cars might have also had excessive wear, but were they ones that really mattered? Not really. To summarize my point, Mercedes might not be as quick this weekend as they were in Austin. The battle between McLaren and Ferrari will be the one to watch.

The midfield teams on the grid will be tight, but I could see a tight battle between Aston Martin and Alpine. As I mentioned before, I expect to see a bit more pace from the green team, but wonder if Alpine can continue showing the strong pace that they did in the US. Would they have failed the plank inspection though? We will never know. Either way, I still think this will be the battle for the top of the midfield this weekend.

Allow me to wrap things up with my predictions:

Qualifying

Pole: Max Verstappen

P2: Lando Norris

P3: Charles Leclerc

Qualifying MVP: Alex Albon

Race

P1: Max Verstappen

P2: Sergio Perez

P3: Lando Norris

Awards

Sigma Male Award: Sergio Perez

Clown of the Week: Lance Stroll

Juiced Up Team: Williams

Change Your F*cking Car: Alfa Romeo